MLB Play of the Days (POD's):
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The last two nights have certainly been upsetting. Two games we should have had, but I'm not one to make excuses or cry. Nathan's gave up a meaningless HR in the 9th so we lost on the run line and then last night the Angels had the game won about 3 times, but the umpire would not punch Green out on his check swing or a pitch thrown down the pipe with a 3-2 count. My overall feeling on it is that I did not have the right game on the right night! When I make these plays my signature POD's I never have the feeling it's going to come down to a situation in the 9th inning. How could it be a strong play otherwise. So if we got the win the last two nights it would be a bonus. We were on the other side of two situations that I felt we wouldn't be in.
Back to tonight as we go with the Phillies on the run line in a huge pitching mis match. Hamels is a cold hot pitcher in my opinion. We saw it through the playoffs and the World Series and we are starting to see it again. After a down season Hamels has quietly put up some great numbers as of late. In his last 2 home starts he has gone 15.2 innings striking 15 batters walking only 2 and allowing 1 ER on 9 hits. He had a rough start earlier in the year against the Nats giving up 6 runs but that was when he was not pitching well and he faced a completely different Nationals line up one that featured Nick Johnson, Austin Kearns and more. Nationals are just 4-13 since Nyjer Morgan went out and I really like for Hamels to keep pitching well as the Phillies have something to play for. The Phillies are 7 up in the division, but they trail the Dodgers for home field by just 1 game in the loss column. I really see them making a push for home field advantage the last two weeks. Nationals struggle against lefties as they are 24-51 in their last 75 vs. LH starters. Along with a Nationals lineup that will struggle against the Phillies today I see a Phillies team who should be able to put up some runs against Ross Detwiler.
Phillies have hit lefties well and they are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. LH starters. Phillies scoring 7.36 runs per 9 innings in their last 5 vs. LHP and at home this year the Phillies are scoring 5.24 runs per 9 vs. LHP something the Nationals won't be able to put up. Once they bounce Detwiller out of the game which I think they will early considering he is 0-3 away with a 8.57 ERA. His last 4 road starts he has a 9.47 ERA with a 2.37 WHIP off 20 ER, 34 hits and 11 BB in just 19 innings pitched, including a start against the Phillies where he gave up 10 hits in 20 AB in his first ever start vs. the Phillies. So who makes the adjustment? I believe the Phillies have the edge, whenever a pitcher allows 45 base runners in 19 innings pitched the Phillies will take advantage of the situation. Once Detwiller is lifted he turns it over to a bullpen that has a road ERA of 6.00. I'm confident that the Phillies will be able to put up runs each and every inning with the amount of runners that will be roaming the bases.
The Phillies have won 11 of their 14 games by more than 1 run against the Nationals this year. In fact the Nationals have lost 52 road games this year and 76.9 % of them have been by more than 1 run. While the Phillies at home have won 41 with 73.1% of them have come by more than 1 run. Take the value with the run line!
